Why Don't Young Voters Like Lai？
By Wu Tien-jung
The Storm Media, May 18, 2023
Just like the statement by Chairman and presidential candidate William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) about how "housing prices are falling," saying that the young people do not like Mr. Lai would not be very accurate. Mr. Lai’s support amongst the younger generation has not fallen in recent polls, he is just not as popular with the young voters compared to Chairman Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party and President Tsai Ing-wen. However, as "revolutions always devour their own children,” it is not a bad thing for young people to keep an appropriate distance from such a candidate who is likely to be elected.
It can be said that Mr. Lai and his team have been trying their best to attract young voters recently. So far, the results have not been prominent. They have not garnered the attention of the young people. His YouTube has received only 20,000 subscriptions in the past two weeks since its launch. The inexperience of Mr. Lai’s campaign social media management has become a talking point for the Kuomintang (KMT) commentators to ridicule. However, the KMT is in no position to make fun of others. Mr. Lai shows strong intentions to communicate with the younger generation, in contrast, the KMT’s sincerity or courage in communicating with the young has not been apparent. The problem with Mr. Lai’s communication lies in the tools and content they are using, which is a problem for the DPP as a whole.
Apropos video content, short videos are indeed the best way to garner the attention of young people. The Biden administration originally intended to ban TikTok, for supposed reasons of national security. However, TikTok is very popular among young Americans (used by 80 percent of American teenagers), hence the Democratic Party is afraid to act. In Taiwan, videos on social media platforms, including short videos, are not only more popular among young people, but also occasionally carry a connotation of "resistance,” mainly because since the DPP administration came to power, it has used its resources to take over the media. The National Communications Commission (NCC), which was supposed to be an independent agency, has taken the initiative to control the media. There have been traces of political manipulation behind the withdrawal of CtiTV, and the listing of Mirror TV. So, YouTube has become a platform for some kind of "political dissent." For example, CTI’s YouTube channel now has a total of 3 million subscribers.
While Mr. Lai is not popular on social media platforms, it won’t have much effect on his election, because the DPP has an overwhelming advantage in the mainstream media. Mr. Lai does not have to worry too much about the volume of publicity and the effect of publicity. However, he still might not have an advantage, because the core of communication is still solid content. Whether his content is on point will in turn affect the results on social media platforms. For example, Mr. Lai has been seen doing mukbangs online, however, when young people are faced with survival problems such as an uncertain future, and the country's leaders are busy pretending to be “cute,” it is difficult to get sympathy from the youngsters.
On May 16, Mr. Lai participated in a “Time with the Chairman” event at National Chengchi University (NCCU). If viewed with standards for a presidential candidate, the conversations that took place at the school were obviously not satisfactory. For example, Mr. Lai reiterated that based on the premise of parity and dignity, and to improve the well-being of people on both sides of the Strait, the DPP agrees on cooperation and exchange with mainland China. However, he also said that the current cross-strait peace advocated by the opposition parties expects to rely on the recognition of the 1992 Consensus and return to the old “One China” framework. He believes Taiwan's sovereignty will be lost, and it will not be true peace this way.
The reality is when Ma Ying-jeou was President, he concluded several agreements with Beijing based on the 1992 Consensus, including the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), none of which violated the premise of reciprocal dignity. Or else why did the DPP not ban ECFA? The consensus allows cross-strait exchanges of business affairs, and the sovereignty of the Republic of China was not violated. Mr. Lai and the DPP may not accept the 1992 Consensus, but as a presidential candidate, he has the obligation to propose a proposal that maintains the sovereignty of the Republic of China while putting forth an alternative proposition to reconciling with Beijing to conduct peaceful exchanges, instead of relying on the cooperation of the United States and East Asian countries to confront China as Taiwan's main foreign policy. What are Taiwan's national interests?
Of all the questions from the NCCU students, the only one that Mr. Lai did not answer was that from a graduate student in Law. The student stated that if mainland China attacked Taiwan, Taiwan would be at the frontline of war, and asked if Mr. Lai is asking the people of Taiwan to be ready for the battlefield and expressed that Mr. Lai’s position of only “peace that maintains sovereignty is real peace” is quite a combative statement. Mr. Lai did not give a straight answer to the Law student. While Mr. Lai is unwilling to associate himself with the negative connotations of war, it is dishonest to avoid this issue. Of course, More importantly, national leaders still need to think seriously about the avoidance of war, because war hurts everyone, and its damage on the young will be absolutely devastating.
In the 2024 presidential election, as long as three major candidates are involved, Mr. Lai will be elected even without the support of the young people. However, the support of the young people will be related to the legitimacy and momentum of the DPP’s governance. In contrast, young voters’ doubts about the ruling party are healthy because the election is not just about the power and transition of politicians but the survival of the young people. How can they not cast this vote cautiously?